Download An Empirical Analysis of Analysts’ Target Prices: Short-term by Brav A., Lehavy R. PDF

By Brav A., Lehavy R.

Utilizing a wide database of analysts' goal costs issued over the interval 1997-1999, we study non permanent marketplace reactions to focus on fee revisions and long term comovement of objective and inventory prices.We ¢nd a signi¢cant industry response to the data contained in analysts' objective costs, either unconditionally and conditional on contemporaneously issued inventory advice and profits forecast revisions. utilizing a cointegration technique, we learn the long term habit of industry and goal prices.We ¢nd that, on common, the one-year-ahead goal expense is 28 percentage greater than the present industry cost.

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3 887 recommendations are perceived as providing more-informative signals. 479). 088). When we consider recommendation downgrades in columns 4 ^ 6, we ¢nd results consistent with the hypothesis that the magnitude of a recommendation revision conveys independent information to market participants. Speci¢cally, we examine downgrades from: (1) strong buy to hold, (2) strong buy to buy, and (3) buy to hold. 960). 239 vs. These results support an informative role for the magnitude of recommendation revisions, consistent with the interpretation that analysts employ the degree of the recommendation revision to convey their con¢dence in their target price estimate.

We provide additional evidence as to the dynamic properties of analyst price targets by examining their long-term comovement relative to stock prices. This framework allows us to document the dynamics that force the two sets of prices to converge on the long-term relation. We provide evidence that the market understands the latter relationship. Target prices and, more generally, ¢nancial analysts have recently received considerable attention. This paper is the ¢rst to explore and document evidence on the informativeness and time-series behavior of analysts’ target prices, thus contributing to our understanding of price formation in equity markets.

Richardson, 1995, Analysts use of earnings forecasts in predicting stock returns: Forecast horizon e¡ects, International Journal of Forecasting 11, 429 ^ 445. Barber, Brad, Reuven Lehavy, Maureen McNichols, and Brett Trueman, 2001, Can investors pro¢t from the prophets? Security analyst recommendations and stock returns, Journal of Finance 56, 531^565. 1966 The Journal of Finance Barber, Brad, Reuven Lehavy, Maureen McNichols, and Brett Trueman, 2003, Prophets and losses: Reassessing the returns to analysts’ stock recommendations, Financial Analyst Journal, March/ April, 88 ^96.

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